The general election is likely to be postponed until late November after shocking defeat in Yokohama.

*According to a survey by the Liberal Democratic Party, it is expected to fall below the majority in the House of Representatives election.
*Secretary General Nikai retires voluntarily.
*Suga will postpone the general election until late November.

It was another shocking defeat.

The defeat in the mayoral election in Yokohama, where Suga had been a member of the Yokohama City Assembly for a long time and still has many children, was a red light for the administration of Prime Minister Suga.

The Liberal Democratic Party, which has been criticized for “no” to the vagueness of the novel coronavirus countermeasures, is worried that “Suga cannot compete in the general election,” but it has yet to find a good plan to oust the incumbent prime minister.

On the other hand, while Suga, who looks like a beast with his own hands, is rushing to maintain his administration, Toshihiro Nikai, who is ridiculed as an “old soldier duo” with Suga, is rumored to have retired from politics.

In the Yokohama mayoral election, Suga, a supporter of the Liberal Democratic Party, came to light.

According to the Asahi Shimbun, Hachiro Okonogi, who was fully supported by Suga, only gained 38% of the support of the LDP. Although it was unavoidable that 21% of the votes were lost to incumbent Fumiko Hayashi, the remaining 40% voted for non-LDP forces. It was a huge miscalculation that 17% of the votes were lost to Takeharu Yamanaka, a rival candidate to the opposition camp.

What would happen if it were applied to the general election of the House of Representatives to be held this autumn? The “risk scenario” discussed within the LDP is as follows.

“In a national election with a strong sense of party affiliation, supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) do not immediately flow to other parties, but by turning their backs on the vote itself (abstention), they will be able to compete against opposition candidates in various places. In the worst-case scenario, the LDP and Komeito may fall short of the majority.” a party official said.

The Liberal Democratic Party (August 14, 15) conducted a survey of the situation in single-seat constituencies nationwide around Obon. In the evening of August 24, it was reported meaningfully that Suga had received a report from Motojukujin, the secretary-general of Suga, who held all the money and information from the party headquarters.

According to sources familiar with the matter, the LDP lost 40 ~ 60 seats, down from the current 276, suggesting that it would fall below the LDP’s 233 single-party majority. But it’s a mistake to swallow that information. This is because it is a common tactic in a political situation in which “dummy information” is exchanged.

While the 40 ~ 60 seat loss appears to be disadvantageous to the LDP, from a different perspective, the LDP and New Komeito have maintained a majority in the lower house, suggesting that “even if we fight in the general election at Suga, it will not lead to a change of government.”.

Meanwhile, Suga will visit the party headquarters today (August 25) and meet with Nikai. Motoyado, who will be present at the meeting, will report on the most recent situation survey (21, 22 days) following the previous survey.

“The results of the second survey were “below the LDP and New Komeito majority” in the worst case, and it is expected that the Prime Minister will be asked to take some measures.” a source close to the party headquarters said.

Nikai has publicly expressed his support for Suga’s reelection, but if the latest figure falls below the majority of the LDP and New Komeito, it will be difficult for him to do anything about it. After Suga, Nikai, and Motojuku have a ‘three-way secret talk’, Nagatacho might tell you about Fuunkyu.

Nikai has continued to break the record set by Kakuei Tanaka for the longest tenure as secretary general, but his unrelenting words and actions, “Listen to me!” have amplified antipathy within the party and in public opinion.

“The 82 year-old Nikai calls for the reelection of the 72 year-old Prime Minister Suga. The absence of the people is obvious. I was asked by local supporters if they could do something about the second floor of the old building, not Suga.” –. The voices of LDP lawmakers are indicative of this cold atmosphere.

It is no wonder that Nikai, who has spent many years in the political world after leaving the party and returning to the party, is paying close attention to the plummeting approval ratings of the Cabinet. It is difficult to decide how far to go with the stagnating Suga administration while keeping a close eye on the party.

This summer, Hironari Seko (58, 5 wins), secretary-general of the DPJ’s upper house, was elected to Wakayama, the party’s home base on the second floor.

The prime minister’s intention is to switch to the lower house. The next generation hope Yoshimasa Hayashi (60, 5 wins), who was also a member of the House of Councillors, is trying to change his side and is holding a conservative election in his hometown Yamaguchi with the incumbent Takeo Kawamura, 78, who is on the second floor, so Seko’s pride will not allow him to fall behind.

On the other hand, for Nikai, who is 82 years old at that time, the whole account of his final years as a politician can only be made by having his third son inherit the “kingdom of the second floor.”. In Wakayama, there is already talk of reducing the number of constituencies for the House of Representatives in the future. He must prevent the creeping sekko from changing while his eyes are dark.

“By selling favors under the pretext of withdrawing for the sake of the party and the government, he secured the right to nominate his son while keeping an eye on his son’s situation even after the decrease in the number of constituencies, and prevented him from changing his position. To the second floor, it can be said that it is the flower way of the man who can only gain.” an LDP official said.

This is the reason why the rumor of the second floor’s courageous resignation from the political world is secretly circulated.

Suga, on the other hand, needs to overhaul its reelection strategy.

The virus’s infectivity has risen dramatically with the introduction of Delta shares, and a government official said the state of emergency declared by the September 12 deadline is “inevitable” given the fifth wave of the novel coronavirus, which is now spreading nationwide. In addition, he gave up his plan to dissolve the lower house in September, partly due to the fact that the party is starting to exert centrifugal force. The party is expected to hold a presidential election on September 29, after the House of Representatives election.

What has not been heard from the political circle is a proposal to postpone the election day until October 21, when the term of office of lower house members expires. According to the Constitution, if the lower house is dissolved immediately before the expiration date of its term of office, the date of ballot counting can be delayed by about one month.

November 21 or 28th will be considered as the election day, which is literally “Ultra C. ”.

“Two doses of the vaccine will be given to all people who want it in November. As far as possible, we would like to postpone the voting date to the end of November, set a goal of completing the vaccination program, and demonstrate that the number of people suffering from serious illness is decreasing due to the effects of the vaccine.” a source close to the prime minister said.

However, this prospectus was based on the premise of “the re-election of Suga” in the September presidential election, and Fumio Kishida, a former foreign minister, announced his candidacy for the presidency as early as tomorrow, 26th, and intends to take the reins of government. If a new party president is elected to replace Suga, it is highly likely that the party will be dissolved as soon as it is nominated as the party’s leader.

The Suga administration, launched as a relief after the abrupt resignation of Shinzo Abe, will mark its first full year on September 16.

After the Yokohama mayoral election, Suga and Nikai were confronted with a number that fell short of the majority.

Based on the article of Facta August 25, 2021

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